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Prediksi Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara Di Bandara Ngurah Rai Tahun 2025 Menggunakan Model ARIMA Musiman
Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara di Bandara Ngurah Rai, Bali, pada tahun 2025 menggunakan model ARIMA musiman (1,1,1)x(1,1,1,12). Data historis kunjungan bulanan dari tahun 2008 hingga 2024 (sekitar 61,17 juta kunjungan) yang bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) diolah
menggunakan Python, dengan langkah interpolasi nilai hilang dan koreksi anomali pandemi sebesar 50% dari rata-rata kunjungan 2015–2019. Hasil prediksi menunjukkan sekitar 6,6 juta kunjungan pada 2025, dengan
puncak pada Juli (sekitar 650 ribu, atau 21,7 ribu/hari) dan Desember (sekitar 630 ribu). Uji ADF (p-value < 0,05) dan Ljung-Box (p-value 0,12) memvalidasi model. Ngurah Rai diprediksi melampaui Soekarno-Hatta (sekitar 3,3 juta kunjungan), mencerminkan daya tarik Bali yang konsisten dengan tren global. Prediksi ini mendukung perencanaan kapasitas bandara dan strategi promosi musiman, khususnya pada Juli, melalui festival budaya dan diskon penerbangan. Analisis ini memperkuat peran informatika dalam pengambilan keputusan pariwisata berkelanjutan.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.26798/jiko.v9i2.1927
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